【2015 Archives】

015 ArchivesTiangong-1 should complete its fiery journey back to Earth sometime on Sunday night.

The Chinese space station has been circling the planet in a gradually degrading orbit since it was decommissioned in late 2016. It is now expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere -- and mostly burn up in the process -- sometime before 12:00 a.m. ET.

In fact, the latest estimate as of Sunday morning -- from noted astronomer Jonathan McDowell -- points to a significantly earlier re-entry, sometime during the 6:00 p.m. ET hour.

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The European Space Agency's own estimate concurs on the general timeframe, though it's not nearly as specific. The organization's rocket science blog notes that Tiangong-1 should arrive sometime between "the night of 1 April to the early morning of 2 April (in UTC time)." (UTC is Eastern Time + 4 hours.)

Less clear is where the space station -- or what's left of it, anyway -- will land. The ESA's estimate paints a broad picture, noting only that it should fall somewhere between 43ºN latitude and 43ºS latitude.

Just so we're all clear on how large an area that covers, here's what it looks like on a map. Tiangong-1's remains could land anywhere inside the green zone.

"Since it could come down at any time in [the estimated re-enty timeframe], it could come down anywhere it passes over during that period," McDowell told Mashable recently. 

"We won't have the faintest clue more precisely where until a few hours before reentry, and maybe not even then."

Also unclear is how much of the space station will actually survive the re-entry. Most of the 34-foot-long craft should break apart and burn up on its way down. What's more, any pieces that do survive re-entry are unlikely to land in a populated area.

McDowell shared a helpful tweet from self-described "amateur astronomer" Tony Rice, who tweeted out an image demonstrating the likely process and course of Tiangong-1 breaking apart.

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The station's orbital path has been on a course for a late-March/early-April re-entry for days and weeks. It's been in space since 2011, though it was formally replaced in 2016 when Tiangong-2 launched.

If you're hoping to keep closer tabs on Tiangong-1's final descent, find some helpful tips from Mashable's Miriam Kramer right here.